Joe Biden’s plans to send Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan might not go as planned. Sending her to Taiwan at this moment might generate the needed spark to set the situation on fire. A fire that might be very dangerous for the US to play with.
Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is not something that is confirmed but is definitely something that is planned for the upcoming weeks. Or at least it was. Sending her to Taiwan would be a large step to take since it will be a visit of a high-rank US official to a rather vulnerable spot for China. According to analysts, it may do more damage than good.
China Warns Joe Biden – It Is A Sensitive Time To Send Pelosi To Taiwan – You Play With Fire You Get Burnt
Xi Jinping, warns that such a move will have consequences. Consequences that the world doesn’t need and doesn’t want to see.
“I think the Chinese have to do more than they did in 1997 – Xi Jinping can’t be seen as weak on this.” – Bonnie Glaser says referring to the 1997 Newt Gingrich visit to Taiwan. “It’s a very dangerous moment. I think few people actually realize how dangerous this is.” – the director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund adds.
There is a serious concern sparked in the world by what is to happen next since the world currently is not in a good state. Additional conflicts of such scale might just shake the glass legs on which the world supports at the moment before crumbling. And this visit might deliver the final blow to those glass legs.
President Joe Biden had a two-hour-long phone conversation with Xi Jinping. According to Chinese state media, Ji told President Biden that the situation is not one to play with.
“Those who play with fire will only get burned, we hope the US side can see this clearly.” – these are the exact words Xi allegedly used.
According to China, Taiwan is not something that is estranged from them. They still consider it their own. China’s Communist Party strives to reunite the ‘breakaway’ province with China peacefully, but using force might not be excluded from the options as well.
The US military had opposed this visit as well. They are very vocal when it comes to supporting visits that are of crucial meaning to the interests of the US. However, now, they see this visit only as a ‘cheap’ provocation. Furthermore, they fear shots targeting Nancy Pelosi’s plane.
Shooting down Nancy Pelosi’s plane might be too much to imagine since hopefully, China would not go to that extent. But, threats are coming from China’s ministry of defense, saying that it would not ‘sit idly by’. They say that they will take ‘strong measures’ if anyone tries to interfere with their position on Taiwan’s separatist attempts.
If such a thing is to happen, China will send planes to circle around Taiwan for the first time since 1949. And that alone would not be a good sign or sight for anybody. Especially for the citizens of Taiwan. Since this move would be a major breach of sovereignty and a major provocation Taiwan would need to respond. And the rest you can imagine. It would not be a pretty sight in any case.
Bonnie Glaser fears that “there’s always a potential for an accident, but even if there’s not, the Chinese are demonstrating they can fly over Taiwan with impunity because Taiwan is not going to fire on them”.
The major issue here is that the situation calls for measuring forces. Imagine this thing happening. Imagine Pelosi visiting Taiwan. This would escalate the situation and all of the above would happen, and the worst thing about it is that there would be no de-escalation. There is no coming back from it. Neither China nor the US will want to back off since that would be a sign of weakness, and this can lead to one thing only. The thing we all hope to avoid.
In Taiwan, they view the situation a little bit differently. They are hoping that the US will not back off from its position and will proceed with the visit. Furthermore, they see this visit as the start of a series of visits by many different US officials visits.
Taiwan’s ministry of defense states that they are closely monitoring the movement of Chinese warships around the island. However, they state that this is happening on yearly basis. It is not something that is happening due to the visit.
“Now is a very sensitive time.” – Chen Shin-min, a political scientist at the National Taiwan University states. “If Pelosi visits Taiwan, Xi Jinping will receive criticism by other people who may not want him to continue to be the leader of China. In this situation it’s dangerous for Taiwan … Xi Jinping may want to use external activities, for example, to attack Taiwan, to increase China’s nationalistic sentiment.”
However, there is one more pivot point here. Backing off from the promised visit will have its backlash as well. How will Taiwan receive US’s backing off from the visit? It will be a sign of weakness. Or to say the least, it will show that the US is not such a big friend to Taiwan as they claim.
“That would lead Taiwan to question the credibility of America’s security commitment. Right now there is no war. But if mainland China can use its language to influence America’s decision, how can Taiwan trust America’s security commitment? For Taiwan, this is a very big problem.” – Chen adds.
At the moment the United States of America provides weapons and supplies to Taiwan to defend itself. As time passes, China separates from the world more and more. Coupled with this, they present a bigger and bigger threat to Taiwan. And due to this, support for the island comes from many other countries as well.
What do you think, is China bluffing or are they serious? Could they take some steps if a visit is to happen?
